Because the Andes model of hantavirus continues to trigger concern amongst well being officers, the music business is monitoring what’s being known as “blue dot fever.”
It’s nothing organic, nor will it’s the reason for the subsequent lockdown, however it’s of concern.
The situation will get its title from on-line Ticketmaster seating charts for concert events at venues throughout North America. A blue dot signifies an unsold seat, and a fast survey of summer time concert events options lots of gigs that appear to be a foul case of Smurf measles.
For the couple of years instantly following COVID, enterprise for the touring finish of the music business surged as we made up for misplaced time in the course of the shut-in interval in 2020-21. We known as it “funflation,” a wave of spending on issues that hadn’t been capable of do.
Live performance revenues exploded, with 145 million folks attending gigs in 2023, in comparison with 98 million in 2019, earlier than the pandemic. Final yr, the worldwide marketplace for live performance tickets was value US$25.4 billion as stadiums and arenas worldwide have been stuffed to capability. And as 2026 began, predictions have been that this may be one other banner yr.
As a substitute, now we have blue dot fever, which, in some circumstances, has confirmed not simply debilitating however deadly.
The Publish Malone-Jelly Roll tour has been scaled again on account of poor ticket gross sales. Pussycat Dolls pulled all their North American dates on their reunion tour. Zayn Malik deserted all of the American enviornment dates he had booked. Meghan Trainor cancelled her whole Get In Woman Tour. Child Rock’s Freedom 250 tour hasn’t met expectations.
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We might but hear of extra excursions collapsing. What’s occurring? Weren’t we simply complaining that nobody may get a ticket to a present?
The financial system
When costs spike and inflation roars, the very first thing that will get lower is discretionary spending. Gasoline costs are method up, client confidence is down, employment stays shaky, and geopolitics make it inconceivable to foretell the place issues are going from week to week. Corners must be lower.
The price of live performance tickets
In accordance with Pollstar, the bible of the touring business, the typical ticket worth to see a high 100 touring artist in North America is US$134.23. That’s down 1.6 per cent from final yr, but it surely’s nonetheless costly. Globally, the typical worth is US$132.62. And if we have a look at stadium exhibits, the typical worth is US$216.13, a whopping 18.3 per cent increased than final yr and 29 per cent increased than in 2023.
When the financial system was cooking, you may make a case for spending that sort of cash. At present, not a lot. And as soon as once more, Ticketmaster doesn’t set the worth of live performance tickets. The face worth of a ticket is set by the artist and the artist alone, basing it on how a lot the tour will value to stage and the way a lot cash they hope to make.
The one method Ticketmaster makes any cash is by charging a payment for its service. It will get nothing from the bottom worth of a ticket. Hate all of them you need, however Ticketmaster is just not the issue right here.
Thinning revenue margins
Regardless of excessive ticket costs, margins that have been razor skinny to start with are getting thinner, because of the excessive value of touring. Power costs aren’t serving to. It prices loads to maintain a fleet of vehicles on the highway and diesel is in a worse spot than gasoline. When promoters, managers, and artists run revenue and loss projections, they’re discovering that dates should be trimmed and venues downsized. In excessive circumstances, it’s higher to only name off your complete tour.
Take the case of Welsh band, Los Campesinos!, who provided a current accounting lesson in touring. They performed 11 exhibits in America, promoting out all however one, averaging round US$21,000 per gig. Gross income was US$127,729.53, however after prices, commissions, taxes, visa charges, and unbudgeted bills have been deducted, the band returned dwelling to Wales US$2,824.98 within the purple. And it is a band that didn’t endure from blue dot fever.
Over-optimistic promoters, expertise patrons, and managers
Each tour is a bet. When 2026 excursions have been being deliberate, there was no US-Iran conflict, gasoline costs have been secure, inflation wasn’t too dangerous, and employment was regular. So why wouldn’t the upward tendencies of 2023-25 proceed? Swing for the fences!
However the second world affairs started to get wonky, the economics of those excursions modified. Jam up the Strait of Hormuz and what appeared like a certain factor in the course of the planning levels in September-October-November of final yr abruptly appears like a shedding proposition. Do you robust it out and hope for one of the best? Cut back? Cancel?
Stiff competitors
Plenty of acts are as soon as once more on the highway this yr, however given the present state of economics, persons are selecting and selecting their spots. If, for instance, you’re a superfan, you’ll nonetheless discover a wait to scrape collectively $1,000 for a premium seat to see your favorite artists. That doesn’t depart a lot to spend on different exhibits. Perhaps the World Cup and its 104 matches throughout North America is hurting live performance ticket gross sales. I imply, have you ever seen what you need to shell out to get into a few of these video games? Then once more, there are stories of blue dots there, too, because of excessive costs, the steep value of transportation and accommodations in host cities, and uncertainty about abroad followers navigating ICE in America.
The large acts will do high-quality. They all the time do as a result of followers will all the time, all the time discover the cash. However beneath that higher crust, issues are undoubtedly trying very blue. A minimum of thus far.
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